SHANGHAI 13th JUNE 2023 - ManpowerGroup Greater China has launched its newest Employment Outlook Survey (hereinafter referred to as "MEOS") for Q3 2023. Data indicates that employment expectations among Chinese employers are continuing to grow in the third quarter of 2023. The survey was implemented in April 2023. For this report, MEOS surveyed 3,060 employers in Mainland China to forecast the employment status of companies during the period of July to September in 2023.

Overall improvement, recruitment willingness steadily rebounds in Q3

48% of the investigated employers plan to hire, while 39% plan to keep workforce levels steady, and 13% expect a staffing decrease. The Net Employment Outlook is +35% after seasonally adjusted analysis, strengthening by 6 percentage points since last quarter and by 7 points compared to this quarter last year.

ManpowerGroup stated that according to the recent macroeconomic data, there exists a gap between the real economy and previous economic expectations. China faces a complex and severe development environment both domestically and internationally, leading to obvious structural differentiation in the economic recovery. Certain regions, cities, and industries will still face employment constraints.

However, the national economy continues to recover and move towards a positive trend, with certain industries demonstrating clear resilience. Compared to the global economy, Asia features a relatively positive economic environment. These factors have to some extent boosted market confidence in employment.

Chengdu has the most optimistic employment expectations, with the largest quarter-on-quarter increase

Chinese employers in all 12 regions expect increasing staffing levels in Q3 2023. Employers in Chengdu reported the brightest outlook with a NEO of +66%, rising by 27 percentage points since the second quarter of 2023 and 40 percentage points since this time last year.

Since the second quarter of 2023, staffing climates have strengthened in 9 out of 12 regions, remained unchanged in two regions, and weakened in one region. Chengdu is expected to experience the greatest increase in employment expectations since last quarter. 

ManpowerGroup believes that the restoration and expansion of consumption in many regions since the beginning of the year has been instrumental in promoting steady economic recovery and driving nationwide employment demand. 

Chengdu stands out with robust employment expectations that are closely tied to its local economic development. With exceptional revenue growth of 19.8% YoY in the catering industry from January to April 2023 and 5.1% YoY growth in commodity retail sales, employment demand is expected to rise in accordance with these economic trends.

Q3 2023 Employment Outlook of 12 Regions and Cities

Net Employment Outlook (seasonally adjusted %)

The most competitive sector is the Energy & Utilities sector, followed by Health Care &

Life Sciences

All 9 Chinese sectors anticipate increasing staffing levels in the next quarter. Compared to last quarter, hiring environments have strengthened in 7 of 9 sectors and weakened in 2 sectors.

The most positive sector in hiring is Energy & Utilities with a NEO of +61%. Compared to last quarter, Consumer Goods & Services (+38%) saw the largest increase by 30 percentage points. Financials & Real Estate (+18%), on the other hand, saw the most significant decline by16 percentage points.

Q3 2023 Employment Outlook of 9 Industry Sectors

Net Employment Outlook (seasonally adjusted %)

 “China’s export of green and low-carbon products has emerged as a new growth driver, with significant increases seen in electric passenger vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar cells, as official export data of these areas from the first quarter reveals a total of 66.9% YoY increase. Moreover, pent-up domestic demand has finally been released, resulting in a new round of rapid development in large-scale wind power, photovoltaic centralized projects, and supporting large-scale energy storage, which will lead to a corresponding increase in energy-related hiring demands.” ManpowerGroup said, “As offline consumption scenes continue to recover, demand for contact-intensive and experiential services, such as catering, retail, and tourism, will correspondingly drive employment demand in Consumer Goods & Services. However, the real estate industry’s sluggish demand in Q2 and the ongoing withdrawal of the supply end due to credit risks have led to a reduction in employment confidence in Financials & Real Estate.”

Large enterprises have the most positive recruitment expectations, while micro-enterprises show the most significant growth

All 4 organization sizes anticipate increasing staffing levels in the next quarter. Since last quarter, hiring intentions have strengthened in 3 of 4 organization sizes and weakened in small-organizations. Large enterprises demonstrate the most optimistic employment expectation with a NEO of +38%; compared to last quarter, micro-enterprises have the largest increase in employment expectation with a rise of 10 percentage points.

Q3 2023 Employment Outlook for Organizations of Four Sizes

Net Employment Outlook (seasonally adjusted %)

ManpowerGroup believes, “Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are crucial for promoting development, stabilizing employment and safeguarding people’s livelihoods. Governments in various regions have recently put effort in boosting businesses of SMEs by implementing favorable policies such as tax exemptions and reductions, rent and fee reductions, and financial insurance. They may serve as one of main reasons behind a corresponding growth in employment demands for micro-enterprises.”

Employers in all 41 countries and territories expect to increase headcount

ManpowerGroup surveyed nearly 39,000 in 41 countries and territories to measure hiring expectations from July to September in the third quarter of 2023. Employers around the world in 41 countries and territories are expecting to grow payrolls. The strongest hiring plans for the next three months are reported in Costa Rica, the Netherlands and Peru. The weakest hiring sentiment is reported in Slovakia and Argentina.

Q3 2023 Employment Outlook for 41 Countries and Territories

Net Employment Outlook (seasonally adjusted %)

APAC: Hiring managers across APAC anticipate strong (+31%) hiring intentions, improving when compared to the previous quarter (+4 percentage points) but slightly weakening year-over-year (-1 percentage point). Australia (+37%), India (+36%), and Mainland China (+35%) report the strongest Outlooks. Most cautious Outlooks reported in Japan (+14%) and Taiwan China (+15%).

Americas: All 11 countries and territories in North, Central and South America report positive employment outlooks for Q3, improving in 7 quarter-over-quarter and 2 compared to this time last year. Hiring managers in Costa Rica report strongest intentions (+43%) both regionally and globally, regionally followed by Peru (+38%) and Mexico (+36%). The lowest confidence is seen by employers in Argentina (+6%).

EMEA: Hiring expectations remain the lowest, although steady, in the EMEA region (+20%), moderately increasing (+2%) since last quarter and slightly weaker since Q3 2022 (-3 percentage points). Outlooks vary across the region with employers most keen to hire in the Netherlands (+39%), South Africa (+34%), and the UK (+29%). Weakest Outlooks are in Slovakia (+10%).

Compared to the previous quarter, overall employment confidence increased cautiously in 29 countries and territories.

Quarterly Changes in 41 Countries and Territories

Net Employment Outlook (seasonally adjusted %)

To view complete results for the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, please visit https://go.manpowergroup.com/meos. With MEOS beginning in 1962, this year’s results mark the 61st consecutive year of the survey.

NOTES TO READERS

The methodology used to collect the data for the Employment Outlook has been digitized in 41 markets from the Q1 2022 report. Respondents in prior quarters were contacted via telephone and data is now being collected online. Respondents are members of double opt-in online panels and are incentivized to complete the survey. In line with standard findings of online surveys, more people are now taking a position – selecting that their workforce will either increase or decrease vs. no change. Because the Net Employment Outlook is based only on the people saying increase or decrease, the result of this higher level of engagement means the methodology shift may contribute to a higher Outlook. With a sample of 1,000 there is a margin of error of +/-3%. The question asked and the respondent profile remains unchanged. The size of the organization and sector are standardized across all countries to allow international comparisons.

ABOUT THE SURVEY

The survey data was collected in April 2023.The Employment Outlook Survey is the most comprehensive, forward-looking employment survey of its kind, used globally as a key economic indicator. The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.

ABOUT MANPOWERGROUP GREATER CHINA LIMITED

ManpowerGroup Greater China Limited (Stock Code: 2180.HK) started its business in Hong Kong and Taiwan in 1997. Since that time, it has accelerated its market expansion and now provides services to its clients in over 240 cities in the Greater China markets and operates in more than 20 offices. ManpowerGroup Inc. (NYSE: MAN), our largest shareholder, is a world leader in workforce solutions and services-- with a long operating history of more than 75 years.

Empowered by the world-wide reputation and global perspectives of ManpowerGroup Inc.,

ManpowerGroup Greater China has rooted its operations in local markets across Greater China for over 20 years. In 2015, ManpowerGroup Greater China Limited and CITICPE established a strategic joint venture headquartered in Shanghai, to penetrate and accelerate business in Greater China. Through our service network of over 240 cities, we offer comprehensive and full range workforce solutions to more than 20,000 companies in the Greater China Region.